This report discusses various economic trends in BC, providing analysis and forecasting for numerous topics.
Summary:
Since the recession of 2008-09, the lower Mainland economy has accounted for most, and at times all, of the growth in B.C., but that is about to change.
Growth prospects in northern B.C. will improve and those regional economies will contribute more to provincial growth.
The Lower Mainland economy will remain the dominant region and largely underpin B.C. growth. However, when economic growth outside the Lower Mainland gains momentum and rises above trend, the province grows at a faster pace. . Growth prospects will not be robust in 2012 but will be on an improving track into 2013 and beyond. This report does not look beyond 2013 but directly contributing to the previously published higher fi veyear B.C. growth forecast is an economic recovery in regions outside the Lower Mainland. Global events and factors have a large infl uence on economic activity in those regions and those prospects look favourable for more output and investment. The Lower Mainland region will benefi t indirectly from the expected commodity-led recovery in northern B.C., while generating moderate trend growth from its large and growing population base. Housing activity is seen treading water in 2012 and gaining ground in 2013. Private investment spending picks up in 2013, while public capital spending winds down.
The three northern economic regions in B.C. will see above-trend growth with the North Coast and Nechako region undergoing a turnaround from its long-term decline. Signs of the turnaround are already evident and with good prospects for new investment activity, an upward growth trend is foreseen. Counter to the other northern regions, the Northeast has been on a long-term uptrend thanks to its energy and coal resources.
Growth in the Thompson-Okanagan is predicted to improve but remain below trend in 2012 and 2013. Housing activity looks to remain near current levels in 2012 before staging a mild gain in 2013 when population growth increases on rising in-migration.
The Kootenay region will also undergo modest growth in 2012. Employment is seen rising less than 1% annually on a trend basis with the unemployment rate staying around 8%.
A modest rebound in Vancouver Island employment is predicted for 2012 but the two-year growth profi le will remain weak and well below trend. The region’s resource-based economy is not well-positioned to take advantage of rising exports to the U.S. and Asia. In addition, the high concentration in public administration employment at a time of fi scal austerity will restrain its growth. However, rising in-migration to the region by retirees is foreseen in 2013 giving some impetus to housing.
The economic region geographies are set by Statistics Canada. These analyses rely on various economic and business statistics, which are more limited in scope than at the provincial level, and on local news information reports. The technical analysis uses regional economic analysis techniques such as the location quotient to help identify export-oriented industries and industry concentrations along with shift-share analysis to help identify growing and declining industries in a region.
